Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:30 •
Inver Park
Expected Goals
2.66 (league 1.49)
0.45 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.8% | 11.6% | 4.2% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.8%
3 - 0
14.0%
1 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Dungannon Swifts | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Larne | 0 | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.0% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.3% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Larne carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 220 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Larne +13.9, Dungannon Swifts -49.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Larne
vs
Dungannon Swifts
Elo gapLarne +220
Home / draw / away64% / 18% / 18%
Expected home share78%
Combined Elo3159.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3159.2
Elo home share
78%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1672.2 | 1487 |
| Form Elo | 1673.6 | 1459.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.1 | 1485.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1635.2 | 1478.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1697.4 | 1430.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.9 | -49.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Larne last-5 Elo change: +13.9; Dungannon Swifts last-5 Elo change: -49.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 0% |
| Attack | 73% | 18% |
| Defense | 64% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 18 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 63% | 67% | 65% | 53% | 28% | 41% |
| Draws | 26% | 17% | 22% | 0% | 6% | 3% |
| Loses | 11% | 17% | 14% | 47% | 67% | 57% |
LarneLDWWWWWWLWDWWWWWDWWWDWWDWWDLLDWWWWLWD
Dungannon SwiftsLLLLLWLWWWWLWWLWLWDWWWLWLLLWLLWLLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 30 | 65 | 28 | 14 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 30 | 39 | 69 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 46% | 65% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 62% | 16% | 32% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 5% | 14% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 3% | 3% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 11 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 11 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Larne | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 80% | 20% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 86% | 14% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 67.2% | 32.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.21 @ Unibet
Draw6.74 @ Pinnacle
Away15.00 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.75 @ Bet365
No1.55 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.65 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.22 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Larne = 2.66 (league 1.49), Dungannon Swifts = 0.45 (league 1.25)
| Dungannon Swifts | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Larne | 0 | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.0% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.3% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 78.8% · Draw 11.6% · Away win 4.2%