1. Division
— Cyprus
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
AEK Arena
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.48)
1.03 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.1% | 27.9% | 29.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
12.7%
0 - 1
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Aris | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AEK Larnaca | 0 | 9.9% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.7% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
AEK Larnaca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AEK Larnaca +5.8, Aris -4.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
AEK Larnaca
vs
Aris
Elo gapAEK Larnaca +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3202.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3202.3
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1631 | 1571.3 |
| Form Elo | 1626.6 | 1569.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1570.4 | 1513.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1604.7 | 1669.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1701.7 | 1576.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.8 | -4.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. AEK Larnaca last-5 Elo change: +5.8; Aris last-5 Elo change: -4.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 42% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Wins | 60% | 53% | 57% | 56% | 29% | 43% |
| Draws | 20% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 36% | 30% |
| Loses | 20% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 36% | 27% |
AEK LarnacaWDLWWLWDWWWDWDWWLWWWWLLDWWWDLD
ArisWWWLWDWDWWLWLWDDWWLLLDDDWLDLDW
League goals
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 24 | 52 | 37 | 18 | 55 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 17 | 14 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AEK Larnaca | Aris | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 67% | 87% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 13% | 53% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 3% | 33% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 2-1 | 3-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AEK Larnaca | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 50.5% | 49.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.99 @ Dafabet
Draw3.66 @ Pinnacle
Away3.55 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Betano
No2.04 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.88 @ Betano
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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