Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:45 •
Al Maktoum Stadium
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.46)
1.61 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.7% | 24.9% | 53.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.2%
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 2
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Al-Jazira | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Nasr | 0 | 8.1% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Al-Jazira carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 26 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Nasr +20.7, Al-Jazira +28.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Al Nasr
vs
Al-Jazira
Elo gapAl-Jazira +26
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3107.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3107.7
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523.4 | 1584.3 |
| Form Elo | 1531.3 | 1602.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1454.7 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1465.3 | 1566.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1526.4 | 1546.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.7 | +28.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Al Nasr last-5 Elo change: +20.7; Al-Jazira last-5 Elo change: +28.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 80% |
| Attack | 37% | 79% |
| Defense | 74% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 18% | 45% | 32% | 64% | 45% | 55% |
| Draws | 55% | 36% | 45% | 9% | 27% | 18% |
| Loses | 27% | 18% | 23% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
Al NasrWWDLDLLWWDWLDLDDDDWDDW
Al-JaziraLWDWLWWDWDLWLDLWWWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 14 | 28 | 22 | 16 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 16 | 11 | 27 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 73% | 77% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 36% | 45% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 9% | 27% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 18% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 2-3 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-2 | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Nasr | Al-Jazira |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 32% | 68% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 39% | 61% |
| Total | 39.5% | 60.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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