Premiership
— Scotland
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Tannadice Park
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.61)
0.63 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.4% | 30.8% | 19.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.2%
0 - 0
16.1%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Dundee | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dundee Utd | 0 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Dundee Utd carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dundee Utd +27.6, Dundee +1.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dundee Utd
vs
Dundee
Elo gapDundee Utd +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3000.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.9
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.5 | 1479.4 |
| Form Elo | 1533.4 | 1482.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.3 | 1466.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1501.7 | 1496.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1464.2 | 1444.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +27.6 | +1.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dundee Utd last-5 Elo change: +27.6; Dundee last-5 Elo change: +1.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 48% | 30% |
| Defense | 61% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 16 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| Wins | 35% | 19% | 27% | 38% | 12% | 24% |
| Draws | 35% | 44% | 39% | 25% | 29% | 27% |
| Loses | 29% | 38% | 33% | 38% | 59% | 48% |
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League goals
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 24 | 10 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 22 | 32 | 54 | 26 | 27 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dundee Utd | Dundee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 85% | 58% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 52% | 33% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dundee Utd | Dundee |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 52.0% | 48.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.08 @ SBO
Draw3.90 @ Betfair
Away3.55 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.76 @ SBO
Under 2.52.18 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ 10Bet
No2.25 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Dundee Utd = 1.19 (league 1.61), Dundee = 0.63 (league 1.23)
| Dundee | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dundee Utd | 0 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.4% · Draw 30.8% · Away win 19.7%