First League
— Bulgaria
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:00 •
Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.29)
0.80 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.5% | 31.2% | 26.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.5%
0 - 0
14.9%
1 - 1
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Botev Vratsa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Slavia Sofia | 0 | 14.9% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Slavia Sofia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Slavia Sofia -13.5, Botev Vratsa +4.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Slavia Sofia
vs
Botev Vratsa
Elo gapSlavia Sofia +33
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3017.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3017.6
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508 | 1509.6 |
| Form Elo | 1502.4 | 1514.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.2 | 1483.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1536 | 1422.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1546.9 | 1601.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.5 | +4.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Slavia Sofia last-5 Elo change: -13.5; Botev Vratsa last-5 Elo change: +4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 63% | 88% |
| Defense | 38% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 27% | 33% | 33% | 27% | 30% |
| Draws | 27% | 33% | 30% | 40% | 33% | 37% |
| Loses | 33% | 40% | 37% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
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Botev VratsaDLDDDWWLDWLLWDWLLWDLDDDLWWLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 16 | 36 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 16 | 17 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 67% | 50% | 53% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 37% | 23% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.75 @ Unibet
Draw3.39 @ Pinnacle
Away2.63 @ 888Sport
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ William Hill
No2.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.14 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Slavia Sofia = 1.11 (league 1.29), Botev Vratsa = 0.80 (league 1.10)
| Botev Vratsa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Slavia Sofia | 0 | 14.9% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.5% · Draw 31.2% · Away win 26.1%