Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 18:30 •
Soevereinstadion
Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.43)
0.05 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | 90.7% | 4.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
90.5%
0 - 1
4.5%
1 - 0
4.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Liège | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lommel United | 0 | 90.5% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Lommel United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lommel United 0.0, Liège 0.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Lommel United
vs
Liège
Elo gapLommel United +20
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3075.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3075.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1529.8 | 1545.3 |
| Form Elo | 1529.8 | 1545.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.4 | 1522.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1584.8 | 1544.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1459.5 | 1541.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | 0.0 | 0.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Lommel United last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Liège last-5 Elo change: 0.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 0 | 0 |
| Form | 0% | 0% |
| Attack | 0% | 0% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
0%
FT probability
2.5+
0%
FT probability
3.5+
0%
FT probability
BTTS
0%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Draws | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loses | — | — | — | — | — | — |
League goals
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lommel United | Liège | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 4.5 | — | — | — | — |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lommel United | Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 0% |
| Att | 0% | 0% |
| Def | 0% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 37.0% | 63.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.71 @ Dafabet
Draw4.00 @ Dafabet
Away4.62 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.22 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.25 @ Betfair
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League standings
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