Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 20:30 • Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.32) 1.57 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
20.2% 25.3% 53.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.0%
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 2
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Corinthians
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 8.9% 14.0% 11.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.5% 11.9% 9.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
2 3.2% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
3 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSport RecifeCorinthians
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack40%47%
Defense40%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sport Recife Corinthians
HATHAT
Played101121111223
Wins0%9%5%36%25%30%
Draws50%27%38%36%33%35%
Loses50%64%57%27%42%35%

Form: Sport Recife: DLLLLDLLLDLLLDDDWDLLD • Corinthians: DWLLWLWLWDDDLWLDDDLLWDW

League goals

Metric Sport Recife Corinthians
HATHAT
GF total8715141024
GF avg0.80.60.71.30.81.0
GA total161834111728
GA avg1.61.61.61.01.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSport RecifeCorinthians
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.552%81%70%70%
1.519%57%17%43%
2.50%19%13%4%
3.50%5%4%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSport RecifeCorinthians
HATHAT
Clean sheets224437
Failed to score5510347

Penalties

MetricSport RecifeCorinthians
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricSport RecifeCorinthians
Wins11
Draws33
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-13-02-3
Biggest losses0-43-00-24-0
Goals For2243
Goals Against4324

Model comparison

MetricSport RecifeCorinthians
Form42%58%
Att46%54%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h40%60%
Goals36%64%
Total41.0%59.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Corinthians

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.30 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away2.56 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ 188Bet
No1.77 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sport Recife = 0.85 (league 1.32), Corinthians = 1.57 (league 0.81)

Corinthians
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 8.9% 14.0% 11.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.5% 11.9% 9.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
2 3.2% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
3 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 20.2% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 53.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1