USL League One — USA
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 21:00 • Fitzpatrick Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.13) 0.97 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
65.2% 17.7% 13.6%
best score tips
2 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Forward Madison
0 1 2 3 4 5
Portland Hearts of Pine 0 3.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.3% 8.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.9% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.9% 7.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 4.7% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack89%56%
Defense56%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Portland Hearts of Pine Forward Madison
HATHAT
Played111425141226
Wins55%29%40%29%17%23%
Draws36%43%40%50%33%42%
Loses9%29%20%21%50%35%

Form: Portland Hearts of Pine: DDLDDWDLWDLDWWDLDWWWDWWWL • Forward Madison: LWDDDDDDLLLLWDWDLDDLWLDWLW

League goals

Metric Portland Hearts of Pine Forward Madison
HATHAT
GF total171936141125
GF avg1.51.41.41.00.91.0
GA total101727102232
GA avg0.91.21.10.71.81.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%76%65%73%
1.532%32%19%35%
2.524%0%12%12%
3.58%0%0%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
HATHAT
Clean sheets336617
Failed to score246549

Penalties

MetricPortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricPortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
Wins31
Draws26
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-22-53-01-2
Biggest losses0-22-11-24-0
Goals For4533
Goals Against2224

Model comparison

MetricPortland Hearts of PineForward Madison
Form59%41%
Att62%38%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total61.0%39.0%

Advice: Double chance : Portland Hearts of Pine or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Bet365
Draw3.33 @ Pinnacle
Away3.28 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.02 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.81 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.79 @ Pinnacle
No2.00 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Portland Hearts of Pine = 2.38 (league 1.13), Forward Madison = 0.97 (league 0.84)

Forward Madison
0 1 2 3 4 5
Portland Hearts of Pine 0 3.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.3% 8.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.9% 9.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.9% 7.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 4.7% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.2% · Draw 17.7% · Away win 13.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1