Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 16:00 • David Petriashvili Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.42 (league 1.33) 1.66 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.0% 22.9% 67.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
20.7%
0 - 2
17.2%
0 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Saburtalo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gagra 0 12.5% 20.7% 17.2% 9.5% 3.9% 1.3%
1 5.3% 8.8% 7.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5%
2 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGagraSaburtalo
Played55
Form67%33%
Attack50%21%
Defense50%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gagra Saburtalo
HATHAT
Played121426141226
Wins17%50%35%57%58%58%
Draws42%7%23%29%33%31%
Loses42%43%42%14%8%12%

Form: Gagra: LDLLWLWWLLLDWDDDWLLLWWWWDL • Saburtalo: WWWDDWWWWDWWWWDWDWLDWDWLLD

League goals

Metric Gagra Saburtalo
HATHAT
GF total101727211940
GF avg0.81.21.01.51.61.5
GA total14193310818
GA avg1.21.41.30.70.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGagraSaburtalo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%69%81%46%
1.527%38%42%19%
2.54%12%15%4%
3.50%8%8%0%
4.50%0%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGagraSaburtalo
HATHAT
Clean sheets3587714
Failed to score527325

Penalties

MetricGagraSaburtalo
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricGagraSaburtalo
Wins44
Draws32
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-24-00-6
Biggest losses0-44-00-22-1
Goals For3246
Goals Against4432

Model comparison

MetricGagraSaburtalo
Form67%33%
Att70%30%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution21%79%
H2h29%71%
Goals50%50%
Total46.5%53.5%

Advice: Double chance : Gagra or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.99 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.80 @ Bet365
Away1.71 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.06 @ SBO
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gagra = 0.42 (league 1.33), Saburtalo = 1.66 (league 1.16)

Saburtalo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gagra 0 12.5% 20.7% 17.2% 9.5% 3.9% 1.3%
1 5.3% 8.8% 7.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5%
2 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 9.0% · Draw 22.9% · Away win 67.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1