Sun, Aug 31 2025 • 19:00 • Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.32) 2.54 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.5% 18.5% 54.0%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.3%
1 - 3
7.0%
2 - 2
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Santos 0 1.6% 4.1% 5.2% 4.4% 2.8% 1.4%
1 2.6% 6.5% 8.3% 7.0% 4.4% 2.3%
2 2.0% 5.2% 6.5% 5.5% 3.5% 1.8%
3 1.1% 2.7% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9%
4 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSantosFluminense
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack39%50%
Defense33%39%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Santos Fluminense
HATHAT
Played9112091019
Wins33%27%30%67%20%42%
Draws22%9%15%11%20%16%
Loses44%64%55%22%60%42%

Form: Santos: LDLWLLLDLWLWWLLDWWLL • Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWL

League goals

Metric Santos Fluminense
HATHAT
GF total101020121325
GF avg1.10.91.01.31.31.3
GA total14173191928
GA avg1.61.51.61.01.91.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSantosFluminense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%79%79%
1.530%50%47%42%
2.510%10%5%21%
3.50%5%0%5%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSantosFluminense
HATHAT
Clean sheets314224
Failed to score358134

Penalties

MetricSantosFluminense
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricSantosFluminense
Wins23
Draws11
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-12-32-10-2
Biggest losses0-63-00-24-2
Goals For3323
Goals Against6324

Model comparison

MetricSantosFluminense
Form50%50%
Att44%56%
Def48%52%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h15%85%
Goals22%78%
Total36.8%63.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Fluminense and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.50 @ Bet365
Draw3.24 @ Pinnacle
Away3.15 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.06 @ Pinnacle
No1.80 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Santos = 1.58 (league 1.32), Fluminense = 2.54 (league 0.82)

Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Santos 0 1.6% 4.1% 5.2% 4.4% 2.8% 1.4%
1 2.6% 6.5% 8.3% 7.0% 4.4% 2.3%
2 2.0% 5.2% 6.5% 5.5% 3.5% 1.8%
3 1.1% 2.7% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9%
4 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.5% · Draw 18.5% · Away win 54.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1