Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.46 (league 1.31) 1.37 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.3% 27.9% 59.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.1%
0 - 0
16.1%
0 - 2
15.1%
Score & goals probability table
Botafogo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fluminense 0 16.1% 22.1% 15.1% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6%
1 7.4% 10.1% 6.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
2 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFluminenseBotafogo
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack63%100%
Defense25%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fluminense Botafogo
HATHAT
Played101222121224
Wins60%25%41%50%42%46%
Draws10%25%18%33%25%29%
Loses30%50%41%17%33%25%

Form: Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWLDLW • Botafogo: DWLDLWLWDWWWDWDLWLWWLDWD

League goals

Metric Fluminense Botafogo
HATHAT
GF total121426221335
GF avg1.21.21.21.81.11.5
GA total10192912618
GA avg1.01.61.31.00.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFluminenseBotafogo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%73%63%54%
1.541%36%42%17%
2.55%18%25%4%
3.50%5%13%0%
4.50%0%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFluminenseBotafogo
HATHAT
Clean sheets2465611
Failed to score246369

Penalties

MetricFluminenseBotafogo
Scored (total | %)2 | 66.67%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 33.33%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricFluminenseBotafogo
Wins33
Draws11
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-24-00-5
Biggest losses0-24-20-21-0
Goals For2345
Goals Against2431

Model comparison

MetricFluminenseBotafogo
Form47%53%
Att36%64%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h0%100%
Goals23%77%
Total36.8%63.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Botafogo

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.36 @ 188Bet
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away4.30 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.74 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fluminense = 0.46 (league 1.31), Botafogo = 1.37 (league 0.80)

Botafogo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fluminense 0 16.1% 22.1% 15.1% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6%
1 7.4% 10.1% 6.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
2 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.3% · Draw 27.9% · Away win 59.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1