Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 19:00 • Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.16 (league 1.32) 1.66 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.6% 24.3% 48.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
0 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bahia 0 6.0% 9.9% 8.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6%
1 6.9% 11.5% 9.5% 5.3% 2.2% 0.7%
2 4.0% 6.7% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBahiaPalmeiras
Played55
Form27%87%
Attack75%100%
Defense0%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bahia Palmeiras
HATHAT
Played111223121022
Wins64%25%43%67%70%68%
Draws27%33%30%17%20%18%
Loses9%42%26%17%10%14%

Form: Bahia: DDDLWWWLWLWWWDWDDWWLLDL • Palmeiras: DWWWWLWWWLLDWWWDWWWDWW

League goals

Metric Bahia Palmeiras
HATHAT
GF total191231211536
GF avg1.71.01.31.81.51.6
GA total1018289918
GA avg0.91.51.20.80.90.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBahiaPalmeiras
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%70%86%64%
1.539%26%50%18%
2.513%17%18%0%
3.50%4%9%0%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBahiaPalmeiras
HATHAT
Clean sheets437538
Failed to score044303

Penalties

MetricBahiaPalmeiras
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%6 | 85.71%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 14.29%
Total37

Streaks

MetricBahiaPalmeiras
Wins34
Draws31
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-11-2
Biggest losses1-25-10-22-1
Goals For3342
Goals Against3522

Model comparison

MetricBahiaPalmeiras
Form24%76%
Att32%68%
Def21%79%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%63%
Total33.2%67.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Palmeiras

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.39 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.56 @ Pinnacle
Away2.08 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Superbet
Under 2.51.73 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.02 @ Superbet
No1.87 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bahia = 1.16 (league 1.32), Palmeiras = 1.66 (league 0.81)

Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bahia 0 6.0% 9.9% 8.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6%
1 6.9% 11.5% 9.5% 5.3% 2.2% 0.7%
2 4.0% 6.7% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.6% · Draw 24.3% · Away win 48.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1