Thu, Oct 16 2025 • 00:30 • Arena MRV
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.32) 1.08 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.1% 32.2% 44.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.4%
0 - 0
16.9%
1 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
Cruzeiro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 16.9% 18.4% 10.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.7% 12.7% 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
2 4.0% 4.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico-MGCruzeiro
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack20%25%
Defense75%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico-MG Cruzeiro
HATHAT
Played121426141327
Wins50%14%31%71%38%56%
Draws42%21%31%14%38%26%
Loses8%64%38%14%23%19%

Form: Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLLLDLWDLW • Cruzeiro: WLDWLWWWDWWDWWWDLWLDWWWWLDD

League goals

Metric Atletico-MG Cruzeiro
HATHAT
GF total16925261440
GF avg1.30.61.01.91.11.5
GA total10203011920
GA avg0.81.41.20.80.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico-MGCruzeiro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%65%74%56%
1.527%38%48%15%
2.58%12%15%4%
3.50%0%11%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico-MGCruzeiro
HATHAT
Clean sheets6395712
Failed to score3710167

Penalties

MetricAtletico-MGCruzeiro
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAtletico-MGCruzeiro
Wins24
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-14-00-4
Biggest losses1-33-01-23-0
Goals For3244
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricAtletico-MGCruzeiro
Form47%53%
Att44%56%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h38%62%
Goals33%67%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Cruzeiro and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.50 @ Bet365
Draw3.15 @ Betano
Away2.49 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.56 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ 188Bet
No1.78 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico-MG = 0.69 (league 1.32), Cruzeiro = 1.08 (league 0.81)

Cruzeiro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 16.9% 18.4% 10.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.7% 12.7% 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
2 4.0% 4.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.1% · Draw 32.2% · Away win 44.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1