Fri, Sep 19 2025 • 18:00 • Koning Willem II Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.83) 1.51 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.3% 23.6% 35.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.6%
2 - 1
8.7%
1 - 2
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Willem II 0 4.3% 6.4% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
1 7.0% 10.6% 8.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5%
2 5.7% 8.7% 6.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4%
3 3.1% 4.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWillem IIJong Ajax
Played55
Form53%33%
Attack40%73%
Defense67%27%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.211 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Willem II Jong Ajax
HATHAT
Played246336
Wins50%25%33%33%0%17%
Draws0%50%33%33%33%33%
Loses50%25%33%33%67%50%

Form: Willem II: LLWWDD • Jong Ajax: LWLDDL

League goals

Metric Willem II Jong Ajax
HATHAT
GF total2575611
GF avg1.01.31.21.72.01.8
GA total28104913
GA avg1.02.01.71.33.02.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWillem IIJong Ajax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%83%67%83%
1.533%33%50%67%
2.50%17%50%50%
3.50%17%17%17%
4.50%17%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWillem IIJong Ajax
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score101112

Penalties

MetricWillem IIJong Ajax
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricWillem IIJong Ajax
Wins21
Draws02
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-14-1
Biggest losses0-15-11-32-0
Goals For2243
Goals Against1534

Model comparison

MetricWillem IIJong Ajax
Form62%38%
Att35%65%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h64%36%
Goals56%44%
Total56.3%43.7%

Advice: Double chance : Willem II or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.80 @ Bet365
Draw4.77 @ Pinnacle
Away5.60 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.75 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.66 @ Dafabet
No2.55 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Willem II = 1.64 (league 1.83), Jong Ajax = 1.51 (league 1.32)

Jong Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Willem II 0 4.3% 6.4% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
1 7.0% 10.6% 8.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5%
2 5.7% 8.7% 6.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4%
3 3.1% 4.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.3% · Draw 23.6% · Away win 35.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1