Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 11:30 • Rodney Parade
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.38) 3.86 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
5.3% 8.3% 67.1%
best score tips
1 - 3
7.4%
0 - 3
7.3%
1 - 4
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Swindon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newport County 0 0.8% 3.0% 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 5.5%
1 0.8% 3.0% 5.8% 7.4% 7.2% 5.5%
2 0.4% 1.5% 2.9% 3.8% 3.6% 2.8%
3 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewport CountySwindon Town
Played55
Form7%80%
Attack28%72%
Defense28%72%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 113 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newport County Swindon Town
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins0%20%10%80%60%70%
Draws20%20%20%0%0%0%
Loses80%60%70%20%40%30%

Form: Newport County: DWLLLLLDLL • Swindon Town: LWWLWWWWLW

League goals

Metric Newport County Swindon Town
HATHAT
GF total5510101121
GF avg1.01.01.02.02.22.1
GA total1010206713
GA avg2.02.02.01.21.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewport CountySwindon Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%100%90%80%
1.520%60%80%40%
2.50%30%40%10%
3.50%10%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewport CountySwindon Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets000112
Failed to score112101

Penalties

MetricNewport CountySwindon Town
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricNewport CountySwindon Town
Wins14
Draws10
Losses51

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-23-10-3
Biggest losses1-34-10-23-2
Goals For2233
Goals Against3423

Model comparison

MetricNewport CountySwindon Town
Form8%92%
Att28%72%
Def28%72%
Poisson Distribution21%79%
H2h40%60%
Goals33%67%
Total26.3%73.7%

Advice: Combo Winner : Swindon Town and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.50 @ Bet365
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away1.78 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.20 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.68 @ Marathonbet
No2.20 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Newport County = 1.01 (league 1.38), Swindon Town = 3.86 (league 1.14)

Swindon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newport County 0 0.8% 3.0% 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% 5.5%
1 0.8% 3.0% 5.8% 7.4% 7.2% 5.5%
2 0.4% 1.5% 2.9% 3.8% 3.6% 2.8%
3 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 5.3% · Draw 8.3% · Away win 67.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1