Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 11:30 • St. Mary's Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.31) 0.92 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.3% 35.7% 41.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.7%
0 - 1
19.9%
1 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 21.7% 19.9% 9.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 12.2% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.1% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSouthamptonSwansea
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack31%38%
Defense63%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Southampton Swansea
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins25%20%22%20%50%33%
Draws50%60%56%60%0%33%
Loses25%20%22%20%50%33%

Form: Southampton: WDLDDLDWD • Swansea: LWDWDLDWL

League goals

Metric Southampton Swansea
HATHAT
GF total47116410
GF avg1.01.41.21.21.01.1
GA total48127310
GA avg1.01.61.31.40.81.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSouthamptonSwansea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%89%78%78%
1.533%33%33%22%
2.50%11%0%11%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSouthamptonSwansea
HATHAT
Clean sheets101112
Failed to score101022

Penalties

MetricSouthamptonSwansea
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricSouthamptonSwansea
Wins11
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-21-00-2
Biggest losses1-23-11-31-0
Goals For2222
Goals Against2331

Model comparison

MetricSouthamptonSwansea
Form55%45%
Att45%55%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h100%0%
Goals81%19%
Total56.2%43.8%

Advice: Double chance : Southampton or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.98 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.68 @ Pinnacle
Away3.90 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.92 @ Pinnacle
No2.00 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.07 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.91 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Southampton = 0.61 (league 1.31), Swansea = 0.92 (league 1.09)

Swansea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Southampton 0 21.7% 19.9% 9.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 12.2% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.1% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.3% · Draw 35.7% · Away win 41.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1