Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.71 (league 1.46) 1.11 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.4% 31.7% 44.8%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.9%
0 - 0
16.1%
1 - 1
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celta Vigo 0 16.1% 17.9% 10.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.5% 12.8% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.1% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
Played55
Form27%73%
Attack33%80%
Defense60%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 112 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Celta Vigo Atletico Madrid
HATHAT
Played437437
Wins0%0%0%75%0%43%
Draws75%67%71%25%67%43%
Loses25%33%29%0%33%14%

Form: Celta Vigo: LDDDDDL • Atletico Madrid: LDDWDWW

League goals

Metric Celta Vigo Atletico Madrid
HATHAT
GF total33611314
GF avg0.81.00.92.81.02.0
GA total549549
GA avg1.31.31.31.31.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%100%100%86%
1.50%29%43%43%
2.50%0%29%0%
3.50%0%14%0%
4.50%0%14%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
Wins01
Draws52
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-2
Biggest losses0-22-12-1
Goals For1151
Goals Against2222

Model comparison

MetricCelta VigoAtletico Madrid
Form27%73%
Att29%71%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h7%93%
Goals13%88%
Total27.2%73.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Madrid

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.06 @ 1xBet
Draw3.95 @ 188Bet
Away1.85 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.00 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.86 @ 188Bet
No2.13 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Celta Vigo = 0.71 (league 1.46), Atletico Madrid = 1.11 (league 1.17)

Atletico Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celta Vigo 0 16.1% 17.9% 10.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.5% 12.8% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.1% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.4% · Draw 31.7% · Away win 44.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1