Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 13:00 • Stadio San Nicola
Match Finished
2 - 1
Expected Goals
0.70 (league 1.43) 0.63 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.4% 39.4% 28.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.4%
1 - 0
18.5%
0 - 1
16.7%
Score & goals probability table
Padova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 26.4% 16.7% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.5% 11.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBariPadova
Played55
Form20%53%
Attack50%63%
Defense0%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bari Padova
HATHAT
Played246336
Wins0%0%0%33%33%33%
Draws100%25%50%33%33%33%
Loses0%75%50%33%33%33%

Form: Bari: LDLLDD • Padova: LDLWWD

League goals

Metric Bari Padova
HATHAT
GF total235426
GF avg1.00.80.81.30.71.0
GA total2911437
GA avg1.02.31.81.31.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBariPadova
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%100%67%67%
1.517%67%33%33%
2.50%17%0%17%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBariPadova
HATHAT
Clean sheets000022
Failed to score022112

Penalties

MetricBariPadova
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricBariPadova
Wins02
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-1
Biggest losses3-00-13-1
Goals For1221
Goals Against1323

Model comparison

MetricBariPadova
Form27%73%
Att44%56%
Def31%69%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total39.3%60.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Bari or draw and -3.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.12 @ Marathonbet
Away3.61 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.37 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.64 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.98 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bari = 0.70 (league 1.43), Padova = 0.63 (league 1.11)

Padova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 26.4% 16.7% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.5% 11.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.4% · Draw 39.4% · Away win 28.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1