Wed, Oct 15 2025 • 18:00 •
Estádio Estadual de Simão Dias
Expected Goals
0.29 (league 1.73)
2.90 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 8.3% | 82.2% |
best score tips
0 - 2
17.3%
0 - 3
16.8%
0 - 4
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Frei Paulistano | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Independente Simão Dias | 0 | 4.1% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 7.1% |
| 1 | 1.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 47% |
| Attack | 7% | 86% |
| Defense | 29% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 100% | 67% | 80% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
Form: Independente Simão Dias: LLLLD • Frei Paulistano: LDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 20% | 100% | 60% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 80% | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 5-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Independente Simão Dias | Frei Paulistano |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 13% | 88% |
| Att | 8% | 92% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 28.8% | 71.5% |
Advice: Winner : Frei Paulistano
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Independente Simão Dias = 0.29 (league 1.73), Frei Paulistano = 2.90 (league 1.03)
| Frei Paulistano | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Independente Simão Dias | 0 | 4.1% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 7.1% |
| 1 | 1.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 2.0% · Draw 8.3% · Away win 82.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1