Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 14:00 •
Gigg Lane
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.45)
0.58 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.3% | 36.3% | 22.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.8%
1 - 0
20.6%
0 - 1
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Chasetown | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bury | 0 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 87% |
| Attack | 42% | 75% |
| Defense | 83% | 92% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
50%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 75% | 33% | 57% | 75% | 50% | 63% |
| Draws | 0% | 67% | 29% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Loses | 25% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
Form: Bury: WDDLWWW • Chasetown: DWLDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bury | Chasetown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 29% | 75% | 25% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 14% | 50% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | — | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bury | Chasetown |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Chasetown and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Bury = 0.90 (league 1.45), Chasetown = 0.58 (league 1.30)
| Chasetown | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bury | 0 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.3% · Draw 36.3% · Away win 22.4%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1