Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 21:00 • Gran Parque Central
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.19) 1.06 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.8% 26.6% 28.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
11.9%
2 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
Cerro Largo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Nacional 0 8.4% 8.9% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.9% 12.6% 6.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.9% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricClub NacionalCerro Largo
Played55
Form87%40%
Attack100%50%
Defense67%17%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Club Nacional Cerro Largo
HATHAT
Played549459
Wins80%50%67%50%60%56%
Draws20%25%22%0%20%11%
Loses0%25%11%50%20%33%

Form: Club Nacional: WLWDWWWWD • Cerro Largo: WWWDLWWLL

League goals

Metric Club Nacional Cerro Largo
HATHAT
GF total14519369
GF avg2.81.32.10.81.21.0
GA total448437
GA avg0.81.00.91.00.60.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineClub NacionalCerro Largo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%56%78%56%
1.567%22%22%11%
2.556%11%0%11%
3.511%0%0%0%
4.511%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricClub NacionalCerro Largo
HATHAT
Clean sheets224224
Failed to score123112

Penalties

MetricClub NacionalCerro Largo
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricClub NacionalCerro Largo
Wins43
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-20-31-00-2
Biggest losses3-01-31-0
Goals For5312
Goals Against2331

Model comparison

MetricClub NacionalCerro Largo
Form68%32%
Att79%21%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h93%7%
Goals86%14%
Total75.2%24.8%

Advice: Double chance : Club Nacional or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.43 @ Unibet
Draw5.25 @ Bet365
Away8.51 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.87 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.25 @ Pinnacle
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Club Nacional = 1.41 (league 1.19), Cerro Largo = 1.06 (league 0.91)

Cerro Largo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Club Nacional 0 8.4% 8.9% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.9% 12.6% 6.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.9% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.8% · Draw 26.6% · Away win 28.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1