Tue, Mar 17 2026 • 20:00 • Etihad Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.84) 1.40 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.7% 23.3% 30.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City 0 4.3% 6.1% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
1 7.5% 10.5% 7.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.8% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricManchester CityReal Madrid
Played55
Form40%80%
Attack23%64%
Defense59%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 114 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Manchester City Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played4596511
Wins75%40%56%83%60%73%
Draws0%20%11%0%0%0%
Loses25%40%33%17%40%27%

Form: Manchester City: WDWWLWLWL • Real Madrid: WWWLWLWLWWW

League goals

Metric Manchester City Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total8715151227
GF avg2.01.41.72.52.42.5
GA total39125813
GA avg0.81.81.30.81.61.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineManchester CityReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%67%91%64%
1.567%44%64%27%
2.511%22%36%18%
3.511%0%27%9%
4.50%0%18%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricManchester CityReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets213224
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricManchester CityReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricManchester CityReal Madrid
Wins23
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-26-10-5
Biggest losses0-23-01-24-2
Goals For4265
Goals Against2324

Model comparison

MetricManchester CityReal Madrid
Form33%67%
Att26%74%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h29%71%
Goals35%65%
Total36.5%63.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.50 @ 1xBet
Draw5.75 @ Bet365
Away5.80 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Betano
Under 2.53.20 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Marathonbet
No2.55 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Manchester City = 1.74 (league 1.84), Real Madrid = 1.40 (league 1.37)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City 0 4.3% 6.1% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
1 7.5% 10.5% 7.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 3.8% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.7% · Draw 23.3% · Away win 30.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1