Bundesliga — Austria
Fri, Mar 20 2026 • 18:30 • Merkur-Arena
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.43) 1.87 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.4% 22.0% 60.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.3%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Red Bull Salzburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 6.6% 12.3% 11.5% 7.2% 3.4% 1.3%
1 5.6% 10.4% 9.8% 6.1% 2.9% 1.1%
2 2.4% 4.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Played55
Form67%33%
Attack59%35%
Defense71%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sturm Graz Red Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins45%67%57%42%45%43%
Draws9%8%9%25%36%30%
Loses45%25%35%33%18%26%

Form: Sturm Graz: WLWWLWWWWLLDLWLWLWLWDWW • Red Bull Salzburg: DWWWDLLWWDWWDLDWWLDWDLL

League goals

Metric Sturm Graz Red Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
GF total122638222042
GF avg1.12.21.71.81.81.8
GA total141428151227
GA avg1.31.21.21.31.11.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%61%78%78%
1.543%39%61%30%
2.517%22%22%9%
3.59%0%13%0%
4.54%0%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets459325
Failed to score112415

Penalties

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total62

Streaks

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Wins43
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-55-01-5
Biggest losses1-33-10-23-1
Goals For2555
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricSturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Form67%33%
Att63%38%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution32%68%
H2h71%29%
Goals59%41%
Total56.0%44.2%

Advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away2.23 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.15 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.60 @ Betfair
No2.42 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sturm Graz = 0.85 (league 1.43), Red Bull Salzburg = 1.87 (league 1.25)

Red Bull Salzburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sturm Graz 0 6.6% 12.3% 11.5% 7.2% 3.4% 1.3%
1 5.6% 10.4% 9.8% 6.1% 2.9% 1.1%
2 2.4% 4.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.4% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 60.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1