Super League
— Zambia
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 13:00 •
Levy Mwanawasa Stadium
Expected Goals
2.46 (league 1.03)
0.60 (league 0.70)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.5% | 14.6% | 7.0% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.2%
3 - 0
11.7%
1 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Prison Leopards | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ZESCO United | 0 | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.5% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
ZESCO United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ZESCO United +21.8, Prison Leopards +11.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
ZESCO United
vs
Prison Leopards
Elo gapZESCO United +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2950.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2950.5
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1502.8 | 1447.7 |
| Form Elo | 1495.6 | 1449.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1538.5 | 1449.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1463.1 | 1420 |
| Defense Elo | 1606 | 1515.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.8 | +11.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. ZESCO United last-5 Elo change: +21.8; Prison Leopards last-5 Elo change: +11.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 53% |
| Attack | 44% | 56% |
| Defense | 78% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 31% | 37% | 36% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 36% | 15% | 26% | 43% | 40% | 41% |
| Loses | 21% | 54% | 37% | 21% | 60% | 41% |
ZESCO UnitedWDWWLLLDLWDWDLWWLLLLLWWDWDD
Prison LeopardsDDLDDDLLDWLDDDLLLLWLDLWLDDWLW
League goals
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 8 | 29 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 10 | 12 | 22 | 8 | 25 | 33 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 56% | 52% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 19% | 17% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 7% | 7% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ZESCO United | Prison Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 36% | 64% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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