Sat, Apr 4 2026 • 19:00 •
Johan Cruijff Arena
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.75)
1.07 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.3% | 28.0% | 31.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
12.3%
0 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Twente | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajax | 0 | 9.7% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ajax | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 80% |
| Attack | 47% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ajax | Twente | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 64% | 21% | 43% | 50% | 36% | 43% |
| Draws | 21% | 64% | 43% | 29% | 50% | 39% |
| Loses | 14% | 14% | 14% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
AjaxWDWDWDWDLWDLLWWWDWDWDDWDDLWD
TwenteLLWLDWWWDLDDDWDWDDWDDWDWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Ajax | Twente | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 25 | 53 | 22 | 25 | 47 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 11 | 24 | 35 | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ajax | Twente | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 93% | 75% | 79% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 43% | 54% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 7% | 18% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ajax | Twente | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ajax | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 8 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 8 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ajax | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ajax | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 51.2% | 48.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.35 @ Bet365
Draw3.80 @ Dafabet
Away2.95 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.61 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.45 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ William Hill
No2.63 @ Unibet
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League standings
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