Mon, Apr 6 2026 • 14:00 • Mazuma Mobile Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.53) 2.32 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.1% 18.4% 63.3%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 2
9.5%
1 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Carlisle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Morecambe 0 3.5% 8.2% 9.5% 7.4% 4.3% 2.0%
1 3.6% 8.4% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.0%
2 1.8% 4.3% 5.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMorecambeCarlisle
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack69%77%
Defense15%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Morecambe Carlisle
HATHAT
Played212142212142
Wins19%24%21%62%62%62%
Draws24%24%24%24%10%17%
Loses57%52%55%14%29%21%

Form: Morecambe: WLLLLDWLLLDLLWLDDLWDLLWLLDLLDLDLWDLWWDLLLW • Carlisle: WDDWWLWWWWLLWWWDWWDWWLLWWWDLWLWWWLWDWLWWWD

League goals

Metric Morecambe Carlisle
HATHAT
GF total273663473178
GF avg1.31.71.52.21.51.9
GA total414788242549
GA avg2.02.22.11.11.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMorecambeCarlisle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%86%86%64%
1.543%64%57%33%
2.519%36%29%14%
3.517%17%7%2%
4.52%7%5%2%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMorecambeCarlisle
HATHAT
Clean sheets3368715
Failed to score7613336

Penalties

MetricMorecambeCarlisle
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total65

Streaks

MetricMorecambeCarlisle
Wins24
Draws22
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-55-00-3
Biggest losses2-55-00-35-0
Goals For4563
Goals Against5535

Model comparison

MetricMorecambeCarlisle
Form29%71%
Att47%53%
Def31%69%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total32.7%67.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Carlisle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.80 @ Bet365
Draw4.00 @ Dafabet
Away1.85 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.52 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.60 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.60 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Morecambe = 1.02 (league 1.53), Carlisle = 2.32 (league 1.29)

Carlisle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Morecambe 0 3.5% 8.2% 9.5% 7.4% 4.3% 2.0%
1 3.6% 8.4% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.0%
2 1.8% 4.3% 5.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.1% · Draw 18.4% · Away win 63.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1