PFL
— Philippines
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 11:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 2.34)
0.59 (league 2.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.9% | 26.6% | 15.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.7%
2 - 0
13.7%
0 - 0
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Manila Digger | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Taguig | 0 | 12.8% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.7% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Taguig carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Taguig +43.9, Manila Digger +36.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Taguig
vs
Manila Digger
Elo gapTaguig +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3353.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3353.2
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1668.5 | 1684.7 |
| Form Elo | 1707.8 | 1712.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1556 | 1594.8 |
| Attack Elo | 2032 | 2195 |
| Defense Elo | 1709.7 | 1672.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +43.9 | +36.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Taguig last-5 Elo change: +43.9; Manila Digger last-5 Elo change: +36.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 100% |
| Attack | 95% | 100% |
| Defense | 85% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 19 | 3.8 | 39 | 7.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
10.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
12.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
70%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Wins | 100% | 88% | 94% | 80% | 86% | 82% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 0% | 13% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TaguigWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Manila DiggerWDWWWDWWDWWWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 57 | 26 | 83 | 46 | 45 | 91 |
| GF avg | 5.7 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5.4 |
| GA total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| GA avg | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Taguig | Manila Digger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 28% | 94% | 47% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 0% | 71% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 0% | 65% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 0% | 53% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 0% | 53% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 13-0 | 0-8 | 12-0 | 0-14 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 13 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Taguig | Manila Digger |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.38 @ Betfair
Draw3.90 @ Betfair
Away2.38 @ William Hill
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.35 @ William Hill
No2.96 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.36 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.80 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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