Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 09:30 •
Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.51)
1.01 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.3% | 30.2% | 33.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.5%
1 - 0
13.4%
0 - 1
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Fortis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Abahani | 0 | 12.6% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Abahani carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 39 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Abahani +54.5, Fortis +14.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Abahani
vs
Fortis
Elo gapAbahani +39
Home / draw / away42% / 26% / 32%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3145.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3145.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1574.9 | 1570.5 |
| Form Elo | 1614.8 | 1587.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.6 | 1546.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1661.8 | 1539.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1564.6 | 1617.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +54.5 | +14.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Abahani last-5 Elo change: +54.5; Fortis last-5 Elo change: +14.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Wins | 67% | 43% | 54% | 43% | 67% | 54% |
| Draws | 17% | 43% | 31% | 43% | 17% | 31% |
| Loses | 17% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 17% | 15% |
AbahaniDLLWDWDDWWWWW
FortisWLDWDWWDWWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 14 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Abahani | Fortis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 62% | 77% | 31% |
| 1.5 | 77% | 31% | 46% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Abahani | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.10 @ Bet365
Draw3.27 @ Pinnacle
Away3.94 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.71 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ Betfair
No1.85 @ William Hill
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League standings
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