Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.43)
1.65 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% | 24.5% | 48.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
0 - 1
10.3%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Ilbirs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bishkek City | 0 | 6.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Bishkek City carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bishkek City +19.8, Ilbirs +10.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bishkek City
vs
Ilbirs
Elo gapBishkek City +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2851.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2851.1
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1425.3 | 1425.8 |
| Form Elo | 1433 | 1427.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1447.6 | 1454.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.6 | 1431.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1423.3 | 1401.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.8 | +10.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bishkek City last-5 Elo change: +19.8; Ilbirs last-5 Elo change: +10.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 33% | 53% |
| Defense | 60% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 75% | 0% | 43% |
| Loses | 67% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 67% | 29% |
Bishkek CityLWWLLD
IlbirsDLWWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bishkek City | Ilbirs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 100% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 50% | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | — | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bishkek City | Ilbirs |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 44.4% | 55.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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