Ekstraklasa
— Poland
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:00 •
KGHM Zaglebie Arena
Expected Goals
2.16 (league 1.59)
0.83 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.5% | 19.0% | 13.2% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.7%
1 - 0
10.9%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Nieciecza | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zaglebie Lubin | 0 | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zaglebie Lubin -32.0, Nieciecza -30.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Nieciecza
Elo gapZaglebie Lubin +83
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3039.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3039.6
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.8 | 1495.8 |
| Form Elo | 1547.7 | 1472.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500.2 | 1501.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.5 | 1608.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1570.5 | 1424.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -32.0 | -30.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Zaglebie Lubin last-5 Elo change: -32.0; Nieciecza last-5 Elo change: -30.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 20% |
| Attack | 12% | 35% |
| Defense | 65% | 29% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 41% | 20% | 21% | 21% |
| Draws | 36% | 20% | 28% | 27% | 21% | 24% |
| Loses | 14% | 47% | 31% | 53% | 57% | 55% |
Zaglebie LubinLDDWLDWDWLWDDWLDWWLWDWWWLLLWL
NiecieczaWLDWLDLDLLLLDLWWLWLDDLDLLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 17 | 42 | 18 | 16 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 22 | 34 | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 69% | 79% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 31% | 28% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 10% | 7% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 3% | 3% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zaglebie Lubin | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 62.0% | 38.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.91 @ Betano
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away4.15 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.76 @ SBO
Under 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.20 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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