Botola Pro
— Morocco
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Stade Adrar
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.12)
0.82 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.6% | 34.1% | 31.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
18.3%
1 - 0
16.1%
0 - 1
15.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Ittihad Tanger | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hassania Agadir | 0 | 18.3% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.1% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Hassania Agadir carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hassania Agadir +5.9, Ittihad Tanger -31.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Hassania Agadir
vs
Ittihad Tanger
Elo gapHassania Agadir +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2903.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2903.8
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1447.1 | 1456.7 |
| Form Elo | 1449.3 | 1450.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1477.3 | 1476 |
| Attack Elo | 1423.6 | 1444.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1493.7 | 1491.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.9 | -31.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Hassania Agadir last-5 Elo change: +5.9; Ittihad Tanger last-5 Elo change: -31.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 7% |
| Attack | 29% | 29% |
| Defense | 29% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 29% | 25% | 27% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| Draws | 14% | 25% | 20% | 63% | 29% | 47% |
| Loses | 57% | 50% | 53% | 25% | 57% | 40% |
Hassania AgadirDLLWLWLLWWDDLLL
Ittihad TangerDDDLDDLWWDLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 73% | 60% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 40% | 13% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hassania Agadir | Ittihad Tanger |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 51.2% | 48.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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