Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Sportforum Hohenschönhausen
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.62)
2.34 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.1% | 18.5% | 62.1% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 2
8.9%
1 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Lokomotive Leipzig | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| BFC Dynamo | 0 | 3.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lokomotive Leipzig carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 93 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: BFC Dynamo +28.2, Lokomotive Leipzig -23.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
BFC Dynamo
vs
Lokomotive Leipzig
Elo gapLokomotive Leipzig +93
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo3145.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3145.8
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.1 | 1636.7 |
| Form Elo | 1522.2 | 1629.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.8 | 1561.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1584.5 | 1672.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1464.8 | 1659.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.2 | -23.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. BFC Dynamo last-5 Elo change: +28.2; Lokomotive Leipzig last-5 Elo change: -23.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 92% | 31% |
| Defense | 46% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 73% | 67% | 70% |
| Draws | 20% | 40% | 30% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Loses | 40% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 27% | 23% |
BFC DynamoLLWDLLDWLDWLWLLDDLLWWLWDLDDWWD
Lokomotive LeipzigDWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWWLWLWWWLWWLWLD
League goals
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 17 | 41 | 27 | 30 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 22 | 23 | 45 | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 80% | 77% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 43% | 50% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 20% | 33% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 2-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 33% | 67% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.50 @ Bet365
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away1.78 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.15 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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