Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:30 •
Sportpark Nord
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.56)
0.85 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.4% | 35.9% | 36.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.3%
0 - 1
18.2%
1 - 0
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Paderborn II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bonner SC | 0 | 21.3% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.8% | 12.6% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Bonner SC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 65 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bonner SC +12.4, Paderborn II -2.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Bonner SC
vs
Paderborn II
Elo gapBonner SC +65
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3015.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3015.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1522.5 | 1492.8 |
| Form Elo | 1519.8 | 1492.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.5 | 1451.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.3 | 1555.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.8 | 1575.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.4 | -2.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bonner SC last-5 Elo change: +12.4; Paderborn II last-5 Elo change: -2.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 60% | 40% |
| Defense | 47% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 29% | 40% | 34% | 47% | 13% | 30% |
| Draws | 29% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Loses | 43% | 33% | 38% | 33% | 47% | 40% |
Bonner SCWLLLLDLDWDLWWWDLDWWWDLLLDLWWD
Paderborn IIWDWLDLDWDDLLWLDWLLLWDLWWLLDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 20 | 32 | 31 | 13 | 44 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 19 | 18 | 37 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bonner SC | Paderborn II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 79% | 67% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 31% | 33% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 14% | 27% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-4 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bonner SC | Paderborn II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 57.0% | 43.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.40 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away2.62 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.19 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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