Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa — Poland

Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:30 • Chorten Arena

Not Started

Jagiellonia

—

Gornik Zabrze

Expected Goals

1.85 (league 1.59) 1.06 (league 1.19)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
54.8%	22.6%	21.3%

best score tips

1 - 1

10.7%

1 - 0

10.1%

2 - 1

9.9%

Score & goals probability table

		Gornik Zabrze
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Jagiellonia	0	5.4%	5.7%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
	1	10.1%	10.6%	5.6%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
	2	9.4%	9.9%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
	3	5.8%	6.1%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
	4	2.7%	2.8%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	5	1.0%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Jagiellonia +13.3, Gornik Zabrze +30.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Jagiellonia Elo 1585.8 · +13.3

Gornik Zabrze Elo 1616.4 · +30.5

Elo gapJagiellonia +4

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo3202.2

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3202.2

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Must Watch

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Overall Elo	1585.8	1616.4
Form Elo	1579.3	1620.2
Home / Away Elo	1550.4	1528.5
Attack Elo	1608.6	1541.5
Defense Elo	1556.6	1628.6
Last 5 Elo change	+13.3	+30.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Jagiellonia last-5 Elo change: +13.3; Gornik Zabrze last-5 Elo change: +30.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Played	5	5
Form	53%	73%
Attack	41%	47%
Defense	76%	88%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	8 \| 1.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	2 \| 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%

FT probability

2.5+

56%

FT probability

3.5+

40%

FT probability

BTTS

71%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-3

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Jagiellonia			Gornik Zabrze
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	15	29	15	14	29
Wins	50%	33%	41%	67%	21%	45%
Draws	21%	47%	34%	7%	43%	24%
Loses	29%	20%	24%	27%	36%	31%

JagielloniaLWWWWDWDDWWLLWDLDWWDDDLLWLDDW

Gornik ZabrzeWWLLWWLWWDWDWWLDLLWLDLLDWDWDW

League goals

Metric	Jagiellonia			Gornik Zabrze
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	29	18	47	28	13	41
GF avg	2.1	1.2	1.6	1.9	0.9	1.4
GA total	20	15	35	13	20	33
GA avg	1.4	1.0	1.2	0.9	1.4	1.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Jagiellonia		Gornik Zabrze
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	79%	72%	72%	72%
1.5	45%	38%	38%	21%
2.5	24%	7%	24%	10%
3.5	10%	3%	3%	7%
4.5	3%	0%	3%	3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Jagiellonia			Gornik Zabrze
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	3	5	8	3	5	8
Failed to score	2	4	6	4	4	8

Penalties

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	1

Streaks

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Wins	4	2
Draws	3	1
Losses	2	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-0	0-3	5-1	0-3
Biggest losses	0-4	3-0	0-1	4-0
Goals For	5	3	5	3
Goals Against	4	3	2	5

Model comparison

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Form	42%	58%
Att	47%	53%
Def	33%	67%
Poisson Distribution	62%	38%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	60%	40%
Total	49.0%	51.0%

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.35 @ Pinnacle

Draw3.50 @ 10Bet

Away3.25 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.87 @ SBO

Under 2.52.00 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ 10Bet

No2.20 @ Betfair

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze

Metric	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	1