Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:45 •
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.28)
0.63 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.6% | 22.6% | 12.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.1%
2 - 0
14.1%
1 - 1
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Cremonese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Napoli | 0 | 9.2% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.1% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.3% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Napoli carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 233 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Napoli +0.6, Cremonese -14.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Napoli
vs
Cremonese
Elo gapNapoli +233
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo3080.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3080.1
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1639.1 | 1441 |
| Form Elo | 1640.6 | 1421.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1591.4 | 1473.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1561.5 | 1440.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1604.7 | 1478.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.6 | -14.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Napoli last-5 Elo change: +0.6; Cremonese last-5 Elo change: -14.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 63% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 13% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| Wins | 69% | 53% | 61% | 13% | 24% | 18% |
| Draws | 25% | 12% | 18% | 44% | 18% | 30% |
| Loses | 6% | 35% | 21% | 44% | 59% | 52% |
NapoliWWWWLWLWWDLWWWLWWDDDWLWWDLWWWWWDL
CremoneseWWDDDLDDWLLLWWLDLLDLDLLLDLLLLWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 22 | 48 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 15 | 18 | 33 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Napoli | Cremonese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 67% | 52% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 30% | 21% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Napoli | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 91% | 9% |
| Goals | 79% | 21% |
| Total | 72.5% | 27.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.37 @ 1xBet
Draw5.27 @ 1xBet
Away10.50 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.97 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.97 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.60 @ William Hill
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League standings
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