Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 00:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.64 (league 2.04)
5.07 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 2.7% | 56.7% |
best score tips
0 - 5
9.3%
0 - 4
9.1%
0 - 3
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Universitario de Vinto | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Independiente Petrolero | 0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% |
| 1 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Independiente Petrolero carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Independiente Petrolero +12.4, Universitario de Vinto +1.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Independiente Petrolero
vs
Universitario de Vinto
Elo gapIndependiente Petrolero +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2807
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2807
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1433.6 | 1373.4 |
| Form Elo | 1463.6 | 1382.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1445.3 | 1401.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1528.1 | 1456.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1270.2 | 1332 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.4 | +1.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Independiente Petrolero last-5 Elo change: +12.4; Universitario de Vinto last-5 Elo change: +1.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 33% |
| Attack | 33% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
4-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
Independiente PetroleroLDW
Universitario de VintoLLW
League goals
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-2 | 5-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | — | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Independiente Petrolero | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 47.2% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.01 @ Dafabet
Draw4.10 @ BetVictor
Away3.20 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.36 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.25 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.36 @ Bet365
No3.20 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…