Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio Azteca
Expected Goals
1.85 (league 1.66)
2.18 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.3% | 20.4% | 43.8% |
best score tips
1 - 2
7.8%
2 - 2
7.2%
1 - 1
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Pachuca W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| América W | 0 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 3.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
América W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: América W +31.8, Pachuca W +0.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
América W
vs
Pachuca W
Elo gapAmérica W +58
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3378.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3378.9
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1701.1 | 1677.8 |
| Form Elo | 1716.3 | 1685.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1604.8 | 1587.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1900.1 | 1931.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1661.9 | 1653.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +31.8 | +0.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. América W last-5 Elo change: +31.8; Pachuca W last-5 Elo change: +0.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 56% |
| Defense | 94% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
82%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 20 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 74% | 65% | 69% | 67% | 76% | 71% |
| Draws | 16% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 17% |
| Loses | 11% | 15% | 13% | 17% | 6% | 11% |
América WWWWWWWWWLDLDWWLWWDWWWDLWDWWWWDWDLWWWWWW
Pachuca WWWDLWDWWWWWWDWWWWWLWWLWWDWWDWWDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 65 | 45 | 110 | 51 | 55 | 106 |
| GF avg | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| GA total | 17 | 21 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | América W | Pachuca W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 56% | 91% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 79% | 28% | 80% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 13% | 54% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 0% | 29% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 0% | 26% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 9 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 9 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 11-0 | 1-5 | 7-0 | 0-9 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0-5 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 11 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | América W | Pachuca W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 89% | 11% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.85 @ 10Bet
Draw3.90 @ 10Bet
Away4.40 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.55 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.53 @ Bet365
No2.50 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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