J2/J3 League — Japan
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 • Sagamihara Gion Stadium
Not Started

Sagamihara

—

Shonan Bellmare

Expected Goals
1.40 (league 1.32) 2.83 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.3% 16.1% 60.5%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 3
7.7%
0 - 2
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
Shonan Bellmare
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sagamihara 0 1.5% 4.1% 5.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.2%
1 2.0% 5.7% 8.1% 7.7% 5.5% 3.1%
2 1.4% 4.0% 5.7% 5.4% 3.8% 2.2%
3 0.7% 1.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0%
4 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Sagamihara carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 22 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sagamihara -4.9, Shonan Bellmare +24.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Sagamihara Elo 1491.3 · -4.9
vs
Shonan Bellmare Elo 1504.2 · +24.0
Elo gapSagamihara +22
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2995.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2995.5
Elo home share 53%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Sagamihara Shonan Bellmare
Overall Elo1491.31504.2
Form Elo1497.71537.7
Home / Away Elo1497.91478.2
Attack Elo1482.41500.3
Defense Elo1457.81490.8
Last 5 Elo change-4.9+24.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sagamihara last-5 Elo change: -4.9; Shonan Bellmare last-5 Elo change: +24.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
Played55
Form40%80%
Attack54%69%
Defense23%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

94%
FT probability

2.5+

66%
FT probability

3.5+

47%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sagamihara Shonan Bellmare
HATHAT
Played65116511
Wins50%40%45%67%80%73%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses50%60%55%33%20%27%
SagamiharaLLWWWLLWLLW
Shonan BellmareLWWWLWWWWWL

League goals

Metric Sagamihara Shonan Bellmare
HATHAT
GF total14620111021
GF avg2.31.21.81.82.01.9
GA total1010206410
GA avg1.72.01.81.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%73%100%64%
1.555%55%55%27%
2.527%36%27%0%
3.518%18%9%0%
4.59%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
HATHAT
Clean sheets213224
Failed to score123000

Penalties

MetricSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
Wins35
Draws00
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-24-01-3
Biggest losses0-34-01-22-1
Goals For5343
Goals Against4422

Model comparison

MetricSagamiharaShonan Bellmare
Form33%67%
Att44%56%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total34.8%65.3%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Sagamihara vs Shonan Bellmare