Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 •
May 1 Stadium
Expected Goals
1.22 (league 1.48)
1.16 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.3% | 27.8% | 34.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
11.3%
0 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| ASA Targu Mures | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Slatina | 0 | 9.3% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Slatina carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Slatina +22.6, ASA Targu Mures +4.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Slatina
vs
ASA Targu Mures
Elo gapSlatina +32
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3092
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3092
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1544.5 | 1547.5 |
| Form Elo | 1561.5 | 1543.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.7 | 1509.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1579 | 1590.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1507.5 | 1541.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.6 | +4.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Slatina last-5 Elo change: +22.6; ASA Targu Mures last-5 Elo change: +4.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 73% | 60% |
| Defense | 60% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
| Wins | 33% | 46% | 40% | 57% | 45% | 52% |
| Draws | 42% | 8% | 24% | 21% | 18% | 20% |
| Loses | 25% | 46% | 36% | 21% | 36% | 28% |
SlatinaDLLLDDWWLWLDLLWWWDLWLWWDW
ASA Targu MuresDWWWWLWLWDWLWWDWLLWLDWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 22 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 11 | 20 | 31 | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 80% | 76% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 28% | 48% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 16% | 40% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 12% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-4 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Slatina | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 49.6% | 50.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.20 @ William Hill
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away3.21 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ 10Bet
No2.00 @ William Hill
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League standings
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