Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:15 •
Stadion Rudolfa Labaje
Expected Goals
3.66 (league 1.71)
0.29 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.0% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
best score tips
3 - 0
15.8%
4 - 0
14.4%
2 - 0
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Vsetín | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Třinec | 0 | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.0% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.8% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.4% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 10.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Třinec carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 195 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Třinec +6.8, Vsetín +10.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Třinec
vs
Vsetín
Elo gapTřinec +195
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3265.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3265.2
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1712.8 | 1552.4 |
| Form Elo | 1719.8 | 1548.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1623.4 | 1508.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1857.7 | 1587.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1717.9 | 1493 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +6.8 | +10.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Třinec last-5 Elo change: +6.8; Vsetín last-5 Elo change: +10.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 53% |
| Attack | 77% | 38% |
| Defense | 77% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 67% | 17% | 42% |
| Draws | 0% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 67% | 42% |
TřinecWDWDWWWWLWWWDWLWWWWWWWWL
VsetínLWDWLWLLWLWWDLWWLLLDDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 16 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 33 |
| GF avg | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 40 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Třinec | Vsetín | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 54% | 63% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 21% | 50% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 0% | 21% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 4% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-2 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 0-6 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Třinec | Vsetín |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 93% | 7% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 64.5% | 35.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.18 @ Betano
Draw7.00 @ Marathonbet
Away14.25 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.01 @ Marathonbet
No1.73 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.41 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.75 @ Bet365
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League standings
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