Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Stadion Batakan
Expected Goals
2.99 (league 1.53)
0.34 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 81.1% | 8.3% | 2.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
16.0%
3 - 0
15.9%
4 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Semen Padang | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pusamania Borneo | 0 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.8% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Pusamania Borneo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 266 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pusamania Borneo +30.2, Semen Padang -12.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Pusamania Borneo
vs
Semen Padang
Elo gapPusamania Borneo +266
Home / draw / away67% / 18% / 15%
Expected home share82%
Combined Elo3058.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3058.4
Elo home share
82%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1644.6 | 1413.8 |
| Form Elo | 1665.3 | 1404.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1574.4 | 1458.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1688.2 | 1404.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1563.5 | 1407.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.2 | -12.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Pusamania Borneo last-5 Elo change: +30.2; Semen Padang last-5 Elo change: -12.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 25% |
| Defense | 58% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 16 | 3.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 86% | 57% | 71% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
| Draws | 7% | 14% | 11% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 7% | 29% | 18% | 57% | 71% | 64% |
Pusamania BorneoWWWWWWWWWWWLLDLWLWWWLWDWDWWW
Semen PadangLWDLLLLLLLLWLWLLLDDWLDLDWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 25 | 58 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 9 | 19 | 28 | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 93% | 71% | 54% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 21% | 21% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 7% | 4% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 11 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pusamania Borneo | Semen Padang |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 76% | 24% |
| Att | 84% | 16% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 72.7% | 27.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.38 @ Betano
Draw5.25 @ BetVictor
Away7.55 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.63 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ 10Bet
No2.10 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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