Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 09:35 •
CommBank Stadium
Expected Goals
0.99 (league 1.62)
1.29 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.3% | 28.1% | 43.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.2%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Melbourne Victory | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 0 | 10.2% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Melbourne Victory carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Western Sydney Wanderers -44.5, Melbourne Victory +7.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Western Sydney Wanderers
vs
Melbourne Victory
Elo gapMelbourne Victory +44
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3006.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3006.1
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1463.4 | 1542.7 |
| Form Elo | 1438.6 | 1554.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1486.8 | 1514.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1518.2 | 1599.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1471.9 | 1502.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -44.5 | +7.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Western Sydney Wanderers last-5 Elo change: -44.5; Melbourne Victory last-5 Elo change: +7.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 53% |
| Attack | 38% | 92% |
| Defense | 0% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 25% | 15% | 20% | 46% | 33% | 40% |
| Draws | 33% | 15% | 24% | 31% | 25% | 28% |
| Loses | 42% | 69% | 56% | 23% | 42% | 32% |
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Melbourne VictoryDLWLLLDWWWWLLWLWDWDDWWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 15 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 14 | 19 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 80% | 68% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 56% | 52% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 20% | 28% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 16% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-4 | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 11% | 89% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 35% | 65% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.74 @ 1xBet
Draw4.00 @ BetVictor
Away2.07 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.80 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.44 @ Bet365
No2.80 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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