Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Lezama Facilities
Expected Goals
0.59 (league 1.48)
1.60 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.5% | 24.6% | 61.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.9%
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Granada | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Athletic Club W | 0 | 11.2% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Athletic Club W +12.8, Granada +39.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Athletic Club W
vs
Granada
Elo gapAthletic Club W +8
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3070.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3070.5
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.5 | 1549 |
| Form Elo | 1519.5 | 1585.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.9 | 1553.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1471.6 | 1478.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1449.8 | 1536.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.8 | +39.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Athletic Club W last-5 Elo change: +12.8; Granada last-5 Elo change: +39.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 80% |
| Attack | 50% | 50% |
| Defense | 38% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 33% | 38% | 36% | 46% | 50% | 48% |
| Draws | 33% | 31% | 32% | 8% | 33% | 20% |
| Loses | 33% | 31% | 32% | 46% | 17% | 32% |
Athletic Club WDLLDDDLDDWDWWWDWLWLLWWLLW
GranadaWLDWLDDLWLDLLLWWWDWWLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 17 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 21 | 40 | 21 | 10 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Athletic Club W | Granada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 60% | 72% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 28% | 36% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 20% | 8% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 20% | 4% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 12% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-8 | 7-1 | 1-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Athletic Club W | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 17% | 83% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 48.2% | 51.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…