Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Insee Chantarasatit Stadium
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.62)
1.26 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.7% | 24.3% | 29.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
2 - 1
9.3%
1 - 0
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Chiangmai United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kasetsart FC | 0 | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Kasetsart FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kasetsart FC -15.0, Chiangmai United -26.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kasetsart FC
vs
Chiangmai United
Elo gapKasetsart FC +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2886.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2886.4
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1457.6 | 1428.8 |
| Form Elo | 1455.9 | 1412.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503.9 | 1450.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1452.4 | 1531.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1517.3 | 1379.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.0 | -26.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kasetsart FC last-5 Elo change: -15.0; Chiangmai United last-5 Elo change: -26.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 29% | 35% |
| Defense | 65% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 31% | 24% | 27% | 53% | 25% | 39% |
| Draws | 38% | 29% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| Loses | 31% | 47% | 39% | 41% | 75% | 58% |
Kasetsart FCDDLWWLDLDLLLWLWWDWLDWLLDDDDWLLDWL
Chiangmai UnitedDLWLLWLWWWLLLWWLLWLWLWLWLLWLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 20 | 43 | 32 | 19 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 24 | 31 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 76% | 79% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 42% | 36% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 18% | 24% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 9% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kasetsart FC | Chiangmai United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 54.3% | 45.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…