Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Quy Nhon Stadium
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.35)
1.42 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.1% | 25.7% | 39.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 1
9.4%
1 - 2
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Bình Phước | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Binh Dinh | 0 | 6.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Bình Phước carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 69 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Binh Dinh +50.4, Bình Phước +21.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Binh Dinh
vs
Bình Phước
Elo gapBình Phước +69
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3097.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3097.9
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1496.8 | 1601.1 |
| Form Elo | 1526.4 | 1622.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.5 | 1520.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1538.8 | 1607.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1464.7 | 1588.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +50.4 | +21.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Binh Dinh last-5 Elo change: +50.4; Bình Phước last-5 Elo change: +21.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 73% |
| Attack | 79% | 57% |
| Defense | 79% | 93% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 88% | 14% | 53% | 75% | 57% | 67% |
| Draws | 13% | 29% | 20% | 25% | 43% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 57% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Binh DinhDLWLWWLDWLWWWWD
Bình PhướcDWWWDWWWDWDWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 8 | 28 | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 80% | 87% | 53% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 27% | 60% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 7% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 54.0% | 46.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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