Kansallinen Liiga — Finland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

HPS W

—

Åland United W

Expected Goals
0.47 (league 2.15) 1.85 (league 1.63)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.6% 20.4% 69.8%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.3%
0 - 2
16.9%
0 - 3
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Åland United W
0 1 2 3 4 5
HPS W 0 9.9% 18.3% 16.9% 10.4% 4.8% 1.8%
1 4.6% 8.5% 7.9% 4.8% 2.2% 0.8%
2 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

HPS W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: HPS W +11.4, Åland United W 0.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
HPS W Elo 1554.7 · +11.4
vs
Åland United W Elo 1554.9 · 0.0
Elo gapHPS W +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3109.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3109.6
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric HPS W Åland United W
Overall Elo1554.71554.9
Form Elo16061554.9
Home / Away Elo1545.61509.2
Attack Elo1682.91635.4
Defense Elo1417.91424
Last 5 Elo change+11.40.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. HPS W last-5 Elo change: +11.4; Åland United W last-5 Elo change: 0.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHPS WÅland United W
Played21
Form67%100%
Attack8%25%
Defense96%96%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 16 | 6
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.51 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

7.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric HPS W Åland United W
HATHAT
Played022101
Wins—50%50%100%—100%
Draws—50%50%0%—0%
Loses—0%0%0%—0%
HPS WDW
Åland United WW

League goals

Metric HPS W Åland United W
HATHAT
GF total022606
GF avg0.01.01.06.00.06.0
GA total011101
GA avg0.00.50.51.00.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHPS WÅland United W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%50%100%100%
1.550%0%100%0%
2.50%0%100%0%
3.50%0%100%0%
4.50%0%100%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHPS WÅland United W
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricHPS WÅland United W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricHPS WÅland United W
Wins01
Draws10
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-26-1—
Biggest losses————
Goals For0260
Goals Against0110

Model comparison

MetricHPS WÅland United W
Form57%43%
Att25%75%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h60%40%
Goals50%50%
Total48.4%51.6%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • HPS W vs Åland United W