Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Longmead Stadium
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.59)
1.80 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.1% | 23.1% | 47.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Torquay | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tonbridge Angels | 0 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Torquay carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tonbridge Angels +5.2, Torquay +33.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Tonbridge Angels
vs
Torquay
Elo gapTorquay +21
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3087.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3087.1
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1515.8 | 1571.3 |
| Form Elo | 1536 | 1586.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1469.7 | 1538.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1558.9 | 1670.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1510.7 | 1504.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.2 | +33.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Tonbridge Angels last-5 Elo change: +5.2; Torquay last-5 Elo change: +33.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 80% |
| Attack | 65% | 88% |
| Defense | 59% | 76% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 32% | 39% | 36% | 61% | 41% | 51% |
| Draws | 32% | 22% | 27% | 22% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 36% | 39% | 38% | 17% | 45% | 31% |
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TorquayWDWLWLDWWWDLWLLWWWWWLLWDWDWWWLDLLLDLWWLDWWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 34 | 31 | 65 | 53 | 32 | 85 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 34 | 29 | 63 | 30 | 31 | 61 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 80% | 82% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 38% | 56% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 16% | 31% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-6 | 7-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-1 | 0-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tonbridge Angels | Torquay |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 37% | 63% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 44.3% | 55.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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