Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
The New Eyrie
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.57)
1.81 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.9% | 22.5% | 42.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.5%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Scarborough Athletic | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bedford Town | 0 | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Scarborough Athletic carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bedford Town +29.4, Scarborough Athletic +14.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bedford Town
vs
Scarborough Athletic
Elo gapScarborough Athletic +41
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3083.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3083.2
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.7 | 1579.5 |
| Form Elo | 1513 | 1591.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1509.9 | 1535 |
| Attack Elo | 1528.3 | 1504.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1463.2 | 1625.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.4 | +14.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bedford Town last-5 Elo change: +29.4; Scarborough Athletic last-5 Elo change: +14.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 67% |
| Attack | 47% | 26% |
| Defense | 68% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 36% | 22% | 29% | 43% | 41% | 42% |
| Draws | 23% | 35% | 29% | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Loses | 41% | 43% | 42% | 17% | 32% | 24% |
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Scarborough AthleticLWDWWWWDWWWLLLLWDDDLWLDDWLLWDDDWWLDDWDDWDWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 26 | 65 | 26 | 34 | 60 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 36 | 40 | 76 | 20 | 31 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 80% | 76% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 58% | 42% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 7-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bedford Town | Scarborough Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.18 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ William Hill
Away2.65 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.99 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.25 @ 10Bet
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League standings
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