Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Edgar Street
Expected Goals
2.71 (league 1.57)
1.33 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.9% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
3 - 1
7.8%
2 - 0
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Peterborough Sports | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hereford | 0 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Hereford carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 134 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hereford +23.9, Peterborough Sports -37.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Hereford
vs
Peterborough Sports
Elo gapHereford +134
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2899.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2899.7
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1499.5 | 1400.2 |
| Form Elo | 1505.7 | 1377.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.7 | 1429.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1568.5 | 1430 |
| Defense Elo | 1448.3 | 1246.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +23.9 | -37.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Hereford last-5 Elo change: +23.9; Peterborough Sports last-5 Elo change: -37.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 7% |
| Attack | 47% | 32% |
| Defense | 68% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 19 | 3.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 41% | 22% | 31% | 26% | 18% | 22% |
| Draws | 14% | 26% | 20% | 26% | 9% | 18% |
| Loses | 45% | 52% | 49% | 48% | 73% | 60% |
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Peterborough SportsLLDLLWLLWDLLWWLLLWWLLLDDLWWWLDDLLLLLLWDLLDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 25 | 62 | 25 | 24 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 36 | 41 | 77 | 38 | 56 | 94 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 84% | 60% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 58% | 36% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 18% | 11% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 9% | 2% | 18% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 2% | 0% | 9% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-1 | 0-5 | 8-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 91% | 9% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 76% | 24% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 73.0% | 27.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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