Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Manfred-Werner-Stadion
Expected Goals
2.60 (league 1.77)
2.40 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.7% | 18.2% | 33.8% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.6%
3 - 2
5.7%
2 - 1
5.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Schöningen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Weiche Flensburg | 0 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Weiche Flensburg carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Weiche Flensburg -4.5, Schöningen -5.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Weiche Flensburg
vs
Schöningen
Elo gapWeiche Flensburg +34
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2974
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2974
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1486.7 | 1487.3 |
| Form Elo | 1479.7 | 1475 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1480.2 | 1512.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1591.8 | 1599 |
| Defense Elo | 1420.1 | 1360.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.5 | -5.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Weiche Flensburg last-5 Elo change: -4.5; Schöningen last-5 Elo change: -5.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 35% | 47% |
| Defense | 47% | 41% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
81%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 36% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Draws | 21% | 20% | 21% | 7% | 13% | 10% |
| Loses | 43% | 47% | 45% | 60% | 53% | 57% |
Weiche FlensburgLWWLLLLWWWLDWLLWDDWLLWDLDLWDL
SchöningenLLLLLWLWLWWLWWLLWLLDWLLDLWWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 30 | 58 | 21 | 27 | 48 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 31 | 28 | 59 | 35 | 34 | 69 |
| GA avg | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 83% | 70% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 62% | 62% | 50% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 38% | 30% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 14% | 7% | 20% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 7% | 3% | 10% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-1 | 2-6 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Weiche Flensburg | Schöningen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 45.8% | 54.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.95 @ Betano
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away3.10 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.85 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.40 @ Bet365
No2.82 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…